The Big Kick Off: Best Bets for the 2024/25 Premier League Season

Summer 2024 has hardly been dull on the sporting front, with the European Championships and Olympic Games doing their bit to keep fans entertained. However, this coming weekend is amongst the most anticipated of the year as the latest edition of the Premier League season kicks into gear.

Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton join the party in the biggest, best, and most watched league on the planet. Survival will be the main aim of that trio. Others will have loftier ambitions. Can Arsenal finally get over the line and claim the title? Or will Pep Guardiola and Man City prove unstoppable once again? Or perhaps Liverpool, Manchester United, or transfer-crazy Chelsea are now ready to challenge.

Last season’s results went largely according to script, with City defending their crown and the three promoted sides going down, but how will things turn out this year? Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we pick out our best outright bets for the season, using Squad Value and xG analysis.

Looking for Outliers

Our approach to the outright markets centres around comparing the outright odds of the sides with the xG performance from 2023/24 and the overall value of the squads – both of which have shown relatively strong predictive power over the past few seasons. Without further ado, the following table lists the sides in betting order, with columns three and four showing their respective 2023/24 xG and current Squad Value rankings. The odds quoted are from LiveScoreBet. Here is the HTML table based on the data from the image: ```html

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The Race for The Title

It’s hard to argue against Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool being the only three sides available at single-figure odds. City and Arsenal sit first and second across all measures, whilst Liverpool are third on xG and only narrowly miss out on third in the squad value stakes. City and Arsenal are rock-solid, but the Reds need to show they can perform as well under Arne Slot. Overall, this market looks right, and we aren't tempted into a bet at this stage.

Top Four Finish

Villa caused a minor shock when grabbing the fourth Champions League position last season, but the numbers suggest they were slightly fortunate to do so. Only seventh in the xG standings and eighth in Squad Value, we expect the Villains to regress slightly this term.

Having finished with a flourish last term - and boasting the third most expensive squad in the division - the numbers suggest that Chelsea have a strong chance of returning to Europe’s top table. However, a price of 6/4 makes limited appeal about a side that continues to adopt a whirlwind approach to the transfer market and must adapt quickly to the Maresca way.

Manchester United are next in at 7/4 for a top-four finish, but that looks way too short for a side that finished a woeful 15th in the xG table, still hasn't signed a proven centre forward, and enters the season with an injury-hit and rejigged backline.

With Villa fancied to drop out of the top four, we are left with a straight choice between Spurs and Newcastle, with a strong preference for the latter. Last season’s seventh-placed effort may have disappointed, but the fact the Magpies recorded the fourth-best xG total was pretty remarkable considering their injury-ravaged first half of the season and the additional demands of Champions League football. With no Europe this time and a much healthier squad heading into the season (with money still to spend), Eddie Howe can gatecrash the top four once again.

• Recommended Bet - Newcastle United to finish in the Top 4 @ 2/1 with LiveScoreBet

Relegation

No surprise to see Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton trading at odds-on to make an immediate return to the Championship. Of that trio, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Ipswich outperform expectations. Leicester must adjust to losing Maresca, whilst Southampton’s squad doesn’t inspire confidence. Ipswich at least has an established system and one of the most promising young managers in the game in Kieran McKenna.

If there is to be a small shock in the relegation market this year, we suspect it may be provided by either Fulham or Wolves.

Fulham sits only seventeenth in terms of squad value and look significantly weakened by the departures of Tosin and Joao Palhinha. Fourteenth, according to xG last term, they won’t need to regress much to be sucked into the mix.

Wolves, meanwhile, faded following a solid start to end the season as the fourth-worst side in the division, according to xG. The transfer window has witnessed the departures of defensive rock Max Kilman and key attacking outlet Pedro Neto, with their untested replacements coming with significant risks attached. We suspect this could be a long season for the Molineux faithful.

• Recommended Bet - Fulham to be relegated @ 11/2 with LiveScoreBet
• RecommendedBet - Wolverhampton Wanders to be relegated @ 13/4 with LiveScoreBet

Chat GPT Predictions for the new season based in our stats:

Predicting the Premier League winner, top four finishers, and relegated teams for the 2024/25 season is always a challenging but exciting task. Given the current standings, odds, and other statistical metrics like expected goals (xG) and squad value rankings, we can make some educated guesses.

Premier League Winner 2024/25

Manchester City is the clear favorite to win the Premier League title again in the 2024/25 season. With the shortest odds at 6/5 and a first-place ranking in both expected goals (xG) and squad value, Pep Guardiola’s side continues to dominate English football. The combination of their tactical superiority, depth in squad, and financial resources makes them the team to beat. Their ability to maintain consistency over a long season, coupled with the experience of winning multiple titles, places them in prime position to secure yet another Premier League crown.

Top Four Finish

Arsenal

Arsenal, under the guidance of Mikel Arteta, has shown substantial improvement over recent seasons. With odds of 37/20 and a solid second-place position in both the expected goals and squad value rankings, the Gunners are likely to secure a Champions League spot. The team’s youthful energy, combined with strategic signings and Arteta's evolving tactics, should see them finish comfortably in the top four.

Liverpool

Liverpool remains a formidable force in English football, even though they are undergoing a period of transition. The odds of 7/1 reflect that they are no longer the dominant force they once were under Jürgen Klopp, but with a third-place xG ranking and fourth in squad value, they are likely to finish in the top four. If they can solve some of their defensive frailties and continue to get the best out of their attacking trio, a Champions League spot is within reach.

Chelsea

Chelsea, despite their tumultuous recent history, is still a strong contender for a top-four finish. With odds of 20/1 and a high squad value ranking (third), they are expected to improve on their sixth-place finish from last season. The Blues have invested heavily in their squad, and if their new signings gel quickly and perform to expectations, they should secure a spot in Europe’s elite competition.

Relegation Candidates

Ipswich Town

Ipswich Town has one of the lowest squad values and is a newly promoted team. Their lack of Premier League experience, combined with the challenges of adapting to the top-flight intensity, makes them a prime candidate for relegation. With odds at 1500/1, it would be a major surprise if they avoided the drop.

Leicester City

Leicester City, despite being a former Premier League champion, finds itself struggling both on and off the pitch. With no expected goals or position ranking, and a squad value ranking of 19th, the signs are ominous for the Foxes. They seem to be in decline, and unless they can find a way to reinvigorate their squad, they are likely to face the drop.

Southampton

Southampton is another club that has been flirting with relegation for several seasons. Their odds of 1000/1 and a squad value ranking of 18th suggest that they might not have enough quality to stay up this time around. Their inconsistent performances and lack of firepower upfront could see them finishing in the bottom three.