Something for the Weekend: Best Racing, Football and Rugby Bets

We have another firecracker of a sporting weekend to look forward to, with televised racing, football, and rugby action providing little incentive for fans to leave the sofa. Champions Day at Ascot takes centre stage on the racing front as the domestic flat campaign reaches a thrilling conclusion; a full slate of Premier League action keeps football fans entertained; whilst the enthralling Rugby World Cup reaches the semi-final stage.

As ever, we will be looking to enhance the excitement with a bet or two, and here, using data presented by newbettingsites.co.uk, we pick out our top value punts in two of the big races from Ascot, the Chelsea vs Arsenal London Derby, and England’s clash with South Africa.

Saturday: Ascot 1:50 pm Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes

Several 2022 champions return to defend their crowns at this year's meeting, including the Ralph Beckett-trained Kinross in this event over a fast and furious 6f. However, with Storm Babet wreaking havoc with the going up and down the land, we suspect that the 2023 edition may be not so fast and not quite so furious. What will likely be needed to prevail here - above all other factors - is an ability to handle bottomless going.

Kinross is a two-time winner on soft, so he should cope better than most, but he was beaten on his only start on heavy and looks worth taking on at around the 7/4 mark. The one to catch the eye is the Charlie Fellowes mare, Vadream. This daughter of Brazen Beau certainly isn’t the classiest runner in the line-up, but we suspect she may be the best under these conditions. Two from three over this trip on soft or worse going, her best effort came when routing the field in a Listed class heavy ground contest at Doncaster earlier in the season. Given August and September off, she returned with a hugely encouraging fifth over this track and trip last time out on unsuitably quick ground. That effort should have teed her up nicely for this, and she can plough through the mud best of all.

• Best Bet - Vadream to win @ 6/1 with LiveScoreBet

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Saturday: Ascot 2:25 pm Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes

John & Thady Gosden’s Free Wind heads the betting in the big race for the fairer sex and should find this an easier assignment than the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last time out. She would look to give Frankie Dettori a decent chance of a big win on his final day as a British-based rider, but the fact that she was beaten out of sight in her most recent outing on heavy ground has to be a concern.

Take a chance instead on the improving Jackie Oh from Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle operation. By the mighty Galileo and out of a mare in Jacqueline Quest, who went down by just a short head in the 1000 Guineas, this one is bred to be smart, and the signs to date have been encouraging. Not beaten far in the Irish 1000 Guineas, she then went down by just a neck to the talented Blue Rose Cien in the Prix de l’Opera. Significantly, her record on soft or worse going reads 121, suggesting conditions will hold no fears. Looking like a typical late-season improver from this yard, she may prove tough to stop.

• Best Bet - Jackie Oh @ 4/1 with BetGoodwin

Saturday: 5:30 pm Chelsea vs Arsenal

We have a Saturday evening sizzler in East London, as Mauricio Pochettino’s hit-and-miss Chelsea outfit plays host to an Arsenal side who headed into the International break on the back of a first success in an age against defending champions Manchester City. Most would expect the Gunners to prove too good here with the wind in their sails, but what do the numbers suggest?

Despite only picking up three points in four outings at home, Chelsea’s underlying xG numbers have been encouraging, with an average xG-for of 2.21 and an average xG-against of 1.01. Arsenal’s respective figures on the road stand at 2.36 for and just 0.67 against. Merging those numbers suggests a scoreline in the region of Chelsea 1.44, Arsenal 1.69. That’s closer than anticipated, and in a game of small margins, we are inclined to side with the hosts to cause a minor shock. It was always going to take a little time for this side to gel, but there have been encouraging signs of late, particularly in the midfield area, and interestingly, Chelsea sits above Arsenal in the xG points table. Arsenal continue to rely heavily on Bukayo Saka’s creativity in the final third, and if the hosts can nullify that threat, they may well be in business.

• Best Bet - Chelsea to win @ 12/5 with BetUK

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Saturday: 8 pm England vs South Africa

England have done mightily well to make it this far in the competition, but this is surely where their journey ends. Whilst bettering expectations at times, the fact that Steve Borthwick’s men remain in the competition - whilst the likes of Ireland and France are on the plane home - is largely down to a notably easy draw. Impressive with only 14 men against Argentina in their opener, subsequent wins over Japan, Chile, Samoa, and Fiji were no more than to be expected, and they struggled mightily in those latter two contests. The Springboks are simply on another level to those sides, and England look ill-equipped to cope.

Battering New Zealand in their final warm-up game, South Africa have so far delivered on the hype to see off Scotland, Romania, Tonga, and latterly France in the match of the tournament – their only defeat coming in a tight encounter to the world number one side Ireland. Boasting a bludgeoning forward pack, the best scrum in the game, and devasting pace in the back row, they look to have too many guns for England and start worthy favourites. Conditions may yet play a role in making this a scrappy encounter, whilst the South African’s kicking is possibly their only weakness, but even with those factors in mind, they still look 10+ points better than their opposition.

• Best Bet - South Africa to win by 11-15 points @ 5/1 with BetGoodwin

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