Something for the Weekend: Best Racing and Football Bets

The Rugby World Cup may now be over for another four years, but there’s no slowing of the pace on the sporting calendar, with another sizzling weekend of action in store. Saturday sees racing fans provided with a real treat, as ITV screens no fewer than 18 live races – split evenly between the domestic fare and the Breeders Cup jamboree from Santa Anita. Throw in a full list of Premier League fixtures, and there’s little incentive for sports fans to stray too far from the sofa.

With so much going on, we can’t resist a bet or two to enhance the entertainment. Here, using data presented by newbettingsites.co.uk, we pick out our best bets in the Newcastle vs Arsenal Premier League clash, two of the headlines events at the Breeders Cup meeting, and the biggest betting race of the day from Ascot.

Saturday: Ascot 3:45 pm Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase

This cracking handicap chase looks like the pick of the domestic action on offer, as 12 contenders do battle over the 3m trip. A fair case can be made for a few of these, including Beauport from the yard of Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has his string in fine fettle at this early stage of the season, and Eldorado Allen, who looks interesting back down into handicapping company. The Gary Moore duo of Larry and Zhiguli look the best of those available at double-figure prices, with the trainer having won three of the past seven editions of this, but, for us, this looks all about the favourite.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Monbeg Genius was last sighted finishing third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, having been heavily supported into joint favouritism on the day. No doubt backers were a little disappointed at the time, but the subsequent efforts of the two horses to finish in front of him suggest he did about as well as could be expected. Winner Corach Rambler claimed Grand National glory on his next outing, whilst runner-up Fastorslow conquered Gold Cup hero Galopin Des Champs in the Punchestown Gold Cup. Monbeg Genius was only 2¼l adrift of that duo at the line, and with Corrach Rambler now rated 159 and Fastorslow 168, his current mark of 147 suggests he may well have a bit up his sleeve from the handicapper.

• Best Bet - Monbeg Genius @ 3/1 with LiveScoreBet

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Saturday: 5:30 pm Newcastle United vs Arsenal

The clear standout of the Saturday Premier League fixtures comes in the late kick-off up at St. James’s Park, as Eddie Howe’s Magpies play host to last season's Premier League runners-up Arsenal. The two sides enjoyed contrasting fortunes in the Carabao Cup in midweek, with Newcastle heaping more misery on Manchester United at Old Trafford, whilst Arsenal were unceremoniously dumped out of the competition at West Ham. Newcastle head into the game on a high, but no doubt the Gunners will be motivated to get that game out of their system at the first time of asking. Arsenal held the edge in the meetings between the sides last season, being held to a goalless draw at the Emirates but impressing in a 2-0 win in this game.

As ever, we will first look at the xG figures of the two sides as a guide to how this one may pan out. So far at home, Newcastle are averaging an excellent 2.85 xG for and just 0.97 xG against. Arsenal’s figures on the road stand at 2.04 xG for and 0.93 xG against. Combining those values suggests a scoreline of Newcastle, 1.89, Arsenal, 1.51. It is, therefore, a little surprising to see that Arsenal are starting as favourites for this one. Newcastle do have a lengthening injury list, but the return of Joe Willock helps cancel out the loss of Sandro Tonali for the season, and the squad showed what they could do when coasting to success at Old Trafford. Barring Manchester City, there shouldn’t be many away sides starting as favourites at St. James’s Park, and a home win looks solid value here.

• Best Bet - Newcastle Win @ 37/20 with 10Bet

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Saturday: Santa Anita 9:50 pm Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf

European raiders have claimed 8 of the past 10 editions of the biggest turf event at the Breeders’ Cup meeting. It will be something of a surprise if that record is not improved further in 2023, with this year's field containing a clutch of exceptional British, Irish, and French talent.

Todd Pletcher’s Up To The Mark looks the best of the home team, but we suspect this may come down to a battle between dual Derby hero August Rodin, Champion Stakes winner King Of Steel, and John Gosden’s Mostahdaf, with preference for the last named. The relatively quick turnaround is a negative for King Of Steel, whilst Auguste Rodin has proven a horse not to be trusted this season, seeming to mix good runs with bad. Even if bringing his A-game, the Aidan O’Brien runner has 5lbs to find with Mostahdaf on ratings and may lack the gears of the son of Frankel. A brilliant winner of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes and Juddmonte International, Mostahdaf’s record following a break of 58 days or more reads a perfect 111111. Arriving on the back of a 73-day break here, he can round off his career with another famous success.

• Best Bet - Mostahdaf @ 11/4 with BetGoodwin

Saturday: Santa Anita 10:40 pm Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

Last but not least, the highlight of the Breeders’ Cup meeting sees the razzmatazz reach a fever pitch, as 12 go to post in search of Classic glory - and the small matter of £4.6 million in total prize money. Whilst the Turf is all about the European contenders, the fixture's headline act looks set to come down to the USA vs Japan.

Bob Baffert has won this four times in the past nine years, and his three-year-old Arabian Knight leads the charge for the home team. Making only his fourth career start here, he took a huge step forward with a first Grade 1 victory in the Pacific Classic Stakes last time out and remains open to improvement. However, he was only clinging on at the line that day, and with this certain to be run at a frenetic pace, we suspect he may be run down by a closer in the straight. And the horse to do it is Dubai World Cup king, Ushba Tesoro. This Japanese superstar heads into the race on a five-race winning streak and looked as well as ever when scoring easily in Listed company in his prep for this. Over two lengths too good for the field when powering home late out in Meydan, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result here.

• Best Bet - Ushba Tesoro @ 9/2 with Star Sports

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