Something for the Weekend: Best Racing and Football Bets

The sporting overload continues into October, with the Cricket and Rugby World Cups in full swing, a final set of Premier League fixtures ahead of the latest international break, and ten televised races on Saturday afternoon.

Plenty for punters to get stuck into, and here, using data presented by newbettingsites.co.uk, we pick out our best bets in the Arsenal vs. Manchester City showdown at the Emirates, Brighton's clash with Liverpool, the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket, and the biggest two-year-old race of the season at the Yorkshire track of Redcar.

Saturday: Redcar 2:45 pm William Hill Two Year Old Trophy

We have an interesting contest from Redcar up first, where the weights are determined not by handicap ratings but rather by the average sales price of a sire's offspring. That system regularly produces a perceived handicap blot, and the horse who appears to be favoured this year is the Clive Cox-trained Dragon Leader. He’s rated 3lb below Kylian and 1lb below Action Point but receives 11lb from each of those rivals under these conditions, making him the one to beat on paper. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been missed by the market - being on offer at a general price of 4/6.

There are certainly worse odds on shots around, but his presence at the head of affairs lends a nice each-way shape to the race, and we prefer to take a chance on one at a bigger price. Kylian and Flaccianello boast obvious claims, but the one who may have been overlooked is the Andrew Balding-trained Work Of Art. Breaking her duck in good style at Kempton two starts back, she ran a fine rice to finish third at Chester when appearing to struggle with the turning track. With the winner that day, Great Generation, going on to finish second in a Group 3, and the runner-up, Jabaara, being beaten only just over three lengths in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, the form looks solid, and she can hit the frame.

• Best Bet - Work Of Art each way @ 20/1 with BetGoodwin

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Saturday: Newmarket 3:15 pm Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes

The big Group 1 of the day sees the fillies do battle over 1m of the Rowley Mile track. 16/1 shot Fonteyn caused a shock in this event in 2022, but overall, this has been a good race for the market leader in recent times, with five of the past ten editions falling to the favourite or joint-favourite. We suspect those figures may have improved further at the end of this edition.

Of those available at longer odds, Random Harvest has hinted that she may be up to this level but is five years old now, and fans are still waiting. The three-year-olds Coppice and Meditate may prove more of a threat but have it all to do on ratings. The biggest threat may emerge from French raider Mqse De Sevigne, but the John & Thady Gosden-trained Inspiral looks the class act in this field. A winner of seven of her eleven career starts, she boasts form figures of 211112 on good or quicker ground, is a five-time winner at the trip – including over course and distance – and arrives on the back of a big Group 1 success in the Jacques Le Marois. With Frankie Dettori in the saddle, she should have too many guns in the closing stages.

• Best Bet - Inspiral @ Evs with LiveScoreBet

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Sunday: 2pm Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool

A clash between two sides involved in Europa League action this week as – hot on the heels of one of the most controversial fixtures in living memory – Liverpool head to the South Coast to take on Brighton & Hove Albion.

Brighton enjoyed a stellar campaign last season and started in a similar vein this time around, only for the wheels to come off when battered 6-1 at Aston Villa. They will be hoping to bounce back now they return to the Amex. Three from four at home this season, scoring three or more in each of those wins, they have every reason to be optimistic. However, the underlying numbers suggest the Seagulls may be a little flattered by those results, with an average xG for of 2.30 and an average xG against of 1.83. Those are reasonable numbers but not spectacular, considering two of their wins came against relegation candidates Luton Town and Bournemouth.

Liverpool’s away figures of 1.53 xG for and 1.57 xG against don’t come close to telling the full story. The Reds have faced a tough start on the road, with trips to Chelsea, Newcastle and Tottenham, and ended with ten men against the Magpies and only nine against Spurs - managing to post figures so close to even in terms of goals for and against is very impressive under the circumstances. With a point to prove following the debacle at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Jurgen Klopp’s men are fancied to take out their frustrations on a Brighton outfit who look vulnerable at the back.

• Best Bet - Handicap Betting: Liverpool -1 @ 14/5 with PariMatch

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Sunday: 4:30 pm Arsenal vs Manchester City

Last but not least, this matchup between last season's Premier League winners and runners-up, as Manchester City travel to the Emirates for the second leg of what promises to be a cracking Super Sunday. The sides enjoyed contrasting fortunes in the Champions League in midweek, with Arsenal surprisingly losing at Lens and City getting on top late to conquer RB Leipzig in Germany. City comfortably held the edge in this fixture last season, winning 3-1 in this game and 4-1 at the Etihad.

Arsenal have been solid at home from an xG perspective, with average figures of 2.08 for and 1.25 against. However, that is still some way short of City’s monstrous away numbers of 2.85 for and 0.66 against. Averaging out those numbers suggests an xG scoreline of Arsenal 1.37, City 2.05. Simply siding with City to win at around 6/4 looks like a solid value option. However, the loss of Bukayo Saka to injury deals a major blow to Arsenal’s attacking potential and may lead to a similarly comfortable outcome as last season.

• Best Bet - Handicap Betting: Manchester City -1 @ 19/5 with PariMatch