Saturday TV Racing: Best Bets from Goodwood and Newmarket

Saturday sees the curtain come down on the 2024 edition of the Qatar Goodwood Festival. The Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes takes top billing from a class perspective on the closing day, but the cavalry charge of the Stewards Cup promises to be the big betting heat of the day. The Glorious Goodwood finale dominates the ITV racing coverage, but the cameras are also at HQ to take in an informative Nursery event and the Listed Chalice Stakes.

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we pick out our four best bets from Goodwood and Newmarket.

British Stallion Studs & Tony Morris EBF Fillies’ Nursery Handicap – Newmarket 2:05

We kick off our punting day in race two on the ITV card as the juvenile sprinters battle over 6f. Hugo Palmer’s It Ain’t Two heads the weights, having performed well in a higher grade in her previous outings this season. A second-placed effort to Aesterius in the Dragon Stakes catches the eye, and she should go well under Aidan Keeley. However, this will be her seventh career start, meaning she is less open to improvement than most.

Whilst the ground at the track is currently good to firm, heavy storms are forecast for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. As such, it seems reasonable to expect soft ground on the day. Not too many of these are proven under such conditions (or likely to handle soft ground on breeding), but one who stands out from the crowd is the George Boughey runner, Dolce Vita.

Two from four to date, her best effort came when winning in a canter in a soft ground event over this trip at Lingfield last time. Touted as a potential Royal Ascot contender earlier in the season, she ultimately skipped that assignment but is worth backing to land this Class 2 affair off a mark of 78.

• Recommended Bet - Dolce Vita to win @ Best Morning Price

British EBF Chalice Stakes – Newmarket 2:40

The pick of the Newmarket action is this 1m4f event open to fillies and mares aged three and older. The three-year-olds have dominated this event of late – winning seven of the past nine editions, including each of the last five.

We suspect that trend may continue in 2024, and the two to catch our eye are the Owen Burrows-trained Nakheel and Fairy Glen from the yard of Simon & Ed Crisford. Nakheel is better than she showed last time out over this course and distance – doing well to finish fourth despite being stuck out wide before being shuffled back at a crucial stage. We like her chances but like those of Fairy Glen a little more.

Breaking her duck on her final start of last season, she returned with a bang to run right away with a Novice event at Kempton when looking to thrive for the step up to 1m4f. All three starts have come on the all-weather, but her pedigree strongly suggests she will handle soft turf. The offspring of her sire, Farhh, tend to relish give underfoot, whilst damn Natural Scenery finished fourth (beaten just 1¼l) in a soft ground Group 3 event over 1m6f. With conditions likely to suit, Fairy Glen may be up to defying a mark of 98 on her handicap debut.

• Recommended Bet - Fairy Glen to win @ Best Morning Price

Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes – Goodwood 3:00

Switching to Goodwood, we turn to the big Group 2 event as a field of stamina-laden fillies and mares do battle over 1m6f. Paul & Oliver Cole’s Sumo Sam caused a 25/1 shock when landing the 2023 edition by 8½l and returns to defend her crown. With rain in the area, the four-year-old is hard to dismiss, despite an underwhelming return when last of seven in a Listed event at this track in May. She has had time to recover from whatever ailed her that day and may bounce back.

Free Wind heads the betting on the back of a solid runners-up effort behind Bluestocking in a Group 2 at York but bombed out in the 2023 edition of this, which is off-putting. The class-dropping Caius Chorister is respected, whilst Aidan O’Brien’s Grateful looks interesting at a big price, having landed a Group 3 over this trip at Fairyhouse earlier in the month.

Plenty in with a chance, but the one we like best is Henry De Bromhead’s Term Of Endearment. A Group 3 winner on soft ground, she stepped up to this trip for the first time in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies Stakes at York, when showing an admirable attitude to stay on best of all to see off the reopposing Night Sparkle and River Of Stars. At a double-figure price, she looks worth supporting each way.

• Recommended Bet - Term Of Endearment each way @ 10/1 with BetMGM

Coral Stewards Cup – Goodwood 3:35

Last but not least, the trickiest handicap puzzle of the day. With 76 runners standing their ground, a maximum field of 28 seems assured for the 2024 Stewards Cup. Faced with so many runners, we will turn to the trends for assistance. Happily, recent results have thrown up a stat or two which may help identify the most likely contenders; 16 of the past 24 winners have carried 8st11lb – 9st7lb; 15 of 24 were aged 4 or 5; and 12 of the last 13 were rated 100 or above.

Interestingly, just one runner fits the above three trends this year – the Hugo Palmer-trained Flaming Rib. Seasonal form figures of 000 may not inspire confidence, but two of those efforts are easy to excuse - having been denied a clear run on his seasonal return at Lingfield, he then stumbled at the start at Epsom. A last-of-25 effort in the Wokingham was more puzzling, but we are always prepared to forgive a runner a subpar effort in that red-hot handicap.

Turning to the positives, Flaming Rib is now down to a mark of 100, having been rated 108 in August 2023, is a five-time winner at the trip, and his only previous outing on soft ground resulted in a Listed class victory over this distance at Doncaster. At 66/1, we won't have everything in our favour, but there is enough to like to take a small each-way chance with Spreadex, who are paying out on the first five.

• Recommended Bet - Flaming Rib each way @ 66/1 with Spreadex

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