Qatar 2022: England’s Goalkeeping Battle

As the clock continues to count down to Qatar 2022, the squads and starting elevens of the 32 nations are now taking shape. Almost all nations are facing at least one decision heading into the tournament though, and one of the biggest for England boss Gareth Southgate is, who will start in goal?

Famously loyal to the players who have never let him down in the past, Everton’s Jordan Pickford would appear to be in pole position. Southgate has however started Newcastle’s Nick Pope in recent Nations League clashes, suggesting that perhaps the starting position is still up for grabs. With Aaron Ramsdale and Dean Henderson also in the mix, here we take a look at the data from the current Premier League season, in an effort to determine which of the quartet heads into the tournament in the best form.

Saves and Goals Prevented

The demands on the man between the posts have never been so great as in the modern era. As more and more teams place greater emphasis on playing out from the back, goalkeepers are required to be competent not only with their hands, but also with their feet.

Nevertheless, it is keeping the ball out of the net which remains the number one task. We, therefore, begin our analysis with a look at the saves performance of each of the four keepers so far in the 2022/23 Premier League season.

According to NewBettingSites, there is a clear split between the keepers when looking at the save percentages – Pickford and Pope coming out well clear of Ramsdale and Henderson. That’s an interesting result considering both Ramsdale and Henderson are most renowned for their shot-stopping ability.

Of course, whilst being a useful metric, save % doesn’t tell the full story. After all, not all shots are created equally, perhaps Pickford and Pope have had more than their fair share of straightforward saves, whereas Ramsdale and Henderson have been faced with a greater proportion of clear goalscoring opportunities. The best way to examine this is via the expected goals (xG) data.

Expected Goals vs Actual Goals Conceded

Rather than treating all shots equally, the xG method assigns a rating to each shot, based on how likely it is to result in a goal. By applying this theory to all shots faced by a specific keeper, we can then estimate how many goals that keeper should be expected to concede based on the specific collection of shots they have faced.

The next step is to then compare this xG tally with the actual number of goals conceded by the keeper. Should the keeper concede less than the xG value suggests, they can be said to be performing well. Should they concede more than the xG indicates, the data would suggest they are failing to make saves they should be making, or committing a higher-than-expected number of errors. When looking at the four England goalkeeping candidates, a comparison of xG and actual goals conceded in the 2022/23 Premier League season (as of 14/10/2022) returns the following.

Keeper xG Actual Goals Difference Pickford 12.8 9 3.8 Pope 11.2 9 2.2 Ramsdale 7.8 10 -2.2 Henderson 19 22 -3

If anything, this result only serves to confirm the impression of the save % measure. So far this season, Jordan Pickford has been the best-performing English keeper in the Premier League in terms of making saves – preventing almost four goals more than the xG suggests. Pope also registers an excellent figure, whilst Ramsdale and Henderson would appear to be underperforming.

Passing Accuracy

As mentioned above, the 21st-century goalkeeper is expected to do more than simply make saves. An increasingly important attribute to have is the ability to initiate attacks by passing out accurately from the back – ideally through a short pass to a teammate.

To assess the keepers in this area, we looked at the accuracy of each of the four keepers when attempting passes of between 5 and 30 yards – again looking at the 2022/23 Premier League season as of 14/10/22.

Keeper Pass Attempts 5-30 yards Completion % Pickford 86 100 Pope 90 97.78 Ramsdale 104 95.24 Henderson 129 99.22

Pickford is on top once again, with an impressive 100% accuracy. We would however suggest that Dean Henderson is at least on par with Pickford in this area, having compiled a near-perfect record over a significantly larger number of passes.

Pickford Still in Pole Position

All of the above suggests that Jordan Pickford is the man most likely to start between the sticks when England kick off their World Cup campaign against Iran on 21st November. Some may suggest that loyalty is the number one factor in that decision, but the above statistics would suggest that the Everton man deserves his spot on merit.

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