Premier League: Squad Value Predictions

The wait is almost over, with the new Premier League season kicking into gear on Friday 11th August, as newly promoted Burnley plays host to champion's Manchester City, and the nine-month race for the title begins. With the new campaign almost upon us, it's prediction time, with pundits, ex-players, and tipsters all having their opinions on how the season may pan out.

However, as the 2022/23 season illustrated, attempting to forecast who will finish where is no easy task. True, Manchester City did win the title, but Arsenal unexpectedly made them work hardest, Newcastle United burst into the Champions League picture, and both Leeds United and Leicester went down, as all three of the newly promoted sides stayed up.

When looking at the season ahead, Squad Value can be a useful guide. Taking the 2021/22 campaign as an example, the average difference between a sides squad value rank and their final position was just 2.7 positions. In the unpredictable 2022/23 campaign, this difference increased to 4.6 positions, but that still suggests this measure can give us at least a broad picture of where we can expect each side to end up.

Here we take a look ahead to the 2023/24 season, using data presented by newbettingsites.uk, and pick out our best value bets for the title, top 4, and relegation.

2023/24 Squad Value Rankings

The above table ranks each squad by value, with Arsenal joining Manchester City in the £1bn+ club this season following an excellent summer of recruitment. Unsurprisingly, new boys Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town prop up the table, with valuations of only 1/17th to 1/6th that of the big two – as good an illustration as any of the task ahead.

Column 4 then shows how the final table will end up according to the odds compilers, who predict that Manchester City will battle it out with the Gunners for the title once again, with Liverpool and Manchester United filling the Champions League positions, Chelsea and Newcastle United taking the Europa League spots, and Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town all making an immediate return to the Championship.

It is, however, the “Difference” column we are interested in when using Squad Values as a betting angle, as this highlights those sides who, for whatever reason, the odds compilers expect to perform better or worse than their Squad Value would suggest – the sides expected to do better than their Squad Value shown in Green, and the sides predicted to fare worse in Red.

The first thing to note here is the strong correlation between Squad Value and position in the betting market, with 15 of the 20 sides ranked within a single position of their Squad Value rating. However, that still leaves five slight outliers, and it is with these sides that much of the betting value may lie.

Squad Value: Recommended Bets

Premier League Winner: Arsenal @ 5/1 with BetUK

Our first bet doesn’t strictly fit the criteria of backing sides that the Squad Value method suggests are in a false position in the betting market. Arsenal sit second in both tables. However, the difference in price between Mikel Arteta’s men and Manchester City looks too big. The value of City’s star-studded squad is only around 5% more than that of Arsenal, yet Arsenal are available to back at a price six times bigger than the 5/6 on offer about the Champs. Arsenal have improved in every season that Arteta has been in charge and have bolstered the squad with the additions of Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, and Jurrien Timber. City, meanwhile, must compete on six fronts this term without one of their star men from last season following the departure of Ilkay Gundogan. It won’t take much of a swing to see last season's positions reverse, and the momentum may well lie with the London club.

Top 4 Finish: Chelsea @ 13/8 with BetUK

Of those towards the top of the Squad Value table, the two sides who appear slightly underestimated are fellow London clubs, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur. There may be a touch of value in the 17/4 available with Spreadex for Spurs to regain a Champions League spot, but they still have the Harry Kane issue hanging over their heads and go into the season with a manager unproven at this level. As such, Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea looks to be the more solid option. Boasting the third most valuable squad in the section, they have a manager who knows what it takes to succeed in this league and look set for a productive campaign.

To Be Relegated: Fulham 4/1

Given the vast gulf between the Championship and the Premier League, the newly promoted sides will almost always fill the bottom three positions in the Squad Value table, and things are no different this year. However, as we saw only last season, plenty of other sides can be sucked into the mix, and Marco Silva’s Fulham may be the most vulnerable. The Cottagers did finish a respectable 10th on their Premier League return but were one of the season's big overperformers, having ranked only 16th in the Expected Points table. Only one spot above the relegation zone in terms of squad value, and with last season's top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic seemingly set to leave, second-season syndrome may strike at Craven Cottage.

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