Premier League Punts: Best Bets for Match Day Nine

There remains a long road ahead in the 2024/25 Premier League season, but following the weekend action, we will be almost 25% of the way through the latest campaign. Match Day 9 throws up another cracking collection of fixtures, which may have a significant bearing on the title race, European positions, and battle to beat the drop.

Here, using data presented by NewBettingSites.uk, we pick out our four best bets for the weekend, including in the Sunday afternoon showstopper as Arsenal welcome Liverpool to the Emirates.

Saturday: Everton vs Fulham – 17:30

First stop, Goodison Park, as Sean Dyche’s 16th placed Everton outfit take on a Fulham side who sit relatively pretty in eighth. Such is the congestion in the middle of the table that the Toffees will draw level on points with their visitors if they pick up all three points.

This fixture didn’t score highly in the entertainment stakes last season, with Fulham winning 1-0 in this one and the reverse fixture at Craven Cottage ending in a goalless draw.

Following a slow start, Everton have rebounded to pick up eight points from the last 12 available, including a 2-1 success over Palace here and a 2-0 victory on the road at Ipswich. Fulham arrive seeking to avoid a third defeat on the spin, following a 3-2 loss at Manchester City and a 3-1 home defeat to Aston Villa.

So far at home, Everton are averaging 1.19xG for and 1.92xG against. Fulham’s respective figures on the road sit at 1.45xG for and 1.18xG against.

Both sides have a few injury concerns, but the most significant absentee may be Fulham’s defensive organiser Joachim Anderson, who misses out through suspension.

That loss of Andersen may contribute to a far more entertaining clash than the 2023/24 fixtures. Everton home games are averaging 2.75 goals per game, and having shipped three against Bournemouth and Brighton, they may struggle to contain Fulham’s high-energy attack. However, there have been signs of encouragement at the other end of the pitch, and the visitors look particularly vulnerable from set-pieces. We can’t call a winner, but over 2.5 goals looks fairly priced at a shade under evens.

• Recommended Bet - Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 with BetGoodwin

Sunday: Chelsea vs Newcastle United – 14:00

The first of the Super Sunday fixtures sees the cameras head to Stamford Bridge for this matchup between two sides with European aspirations. Sitting sixth and ninth, respectively, Chelsea have made the better start, but the Magpies will leapfrog their hosts if able to cause the upset.

The two sides shared the points last season – Newcastle coming out on top 4-1 at St. James’s Park and Chelsea winning 3-2 in this one.

Newcastle will arrive as the fresher side, having had the week off, whereas Chelsea were in Europa Conference League action at Panathinaikos. However, the Blues arrive in better form overall, with their only defeat in their last eight fixtures coming in a 2-1 loss at Anfield. Newcastle, in contrast, are without a win in four in the league and will look to bounce back from a 1-0 home defeat to Brighton.

In four home fixtures, Chelsea are averaging an impressive 2.50xG for and 1.13xG against. Newcastle’s respective away numbers are 1.57xG for and 1.98xG against.

Chelsea have disappointed a couple of times at home this season in draws with Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest, but it’s hard to look beyond a home win here. Newcastle simply haven’t been anywhere near their best last season, with their only win on the road coming courtesy of two screamers at Wolves. They shut Everton out last time but are facing a significantly more potent attacking force here, and we don’t see their defence holding up.

• Recommended Bet - Chelsea to Win @ 5/6 with BetGoodwin

Sunday: West Ham United vs Manchester United – 14:00

Sunday’s non-televised 2pm kick-off also looks set to be a cracker, as 15th placed West Ham United welcome 12th placed Manchester United. Separated by just three points ahead of the game, the Hammers will move above the Red Devils with a win.

Honours even between the two sides last season, with West Ham winning 2-0 in this one and Manchester United coming out on top 3-0 in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford.

Many predicted West Ham would be a surprise package this season. Eight games in, and Julien Lopetegui is beginning to feel the heat following only two wins. Battered 4-1 at Spurs last weekend, the home fans will expect a response. Manchester United continue to be plagued by inconsistency but arrive on a high following a 2-1 victory over Brentford at home.

Fixtures at the London Stadium have been laden with chances this season – West Ham’s average xG figures sitting at 2.23 for and 2.36 against. Manchester United’s numbers on the road are 1.78 for and 1.43 against.

Given their continuing inadequacies, we are always inclined to take Manchester United on. However, West Ham are far from a reliable proposition at present. Given the generally wide-open nature of fixtures here and the decent attacking options in both line-ups, over 2.50 goals looks like the way to go.

• Recommended Bet - Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/20 with BetGoodwin

Sunday: Arsenal vs Liverpool – 16:30

Last but not least, this week's big fixture in the title race as table toppers Liverpool head to North London to take on third-placed Arsenal. Four points adrift of the Merseysiders, the Gunners will look to close the gap by taking maximum points.

Arsenal held the edge in the league meetings between the sides last season – winning 3-1 in this game and picking up a point courtesy of a 1-1 draw at Anfield.

Arsenal suffered their first defeat of the season at Bournemouth last weekend but bounced back with a 1-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League. Barring a shock 1-0 home loss to Nottingham Forest, Liverpool have been perfect this season – winning 10 of 11 in all competitions and arrive following a Champions League win of their own at RB Leipzig.

On xG numbers, Arsenal are the best home side in the league, averaging a huge 3.34 for and 1.00 against across their opening four games. Liverpool, meanwhile, are the leading side on the road, with an average of 2.56 xG for and an excellent 0.80xG against away from home.

As impressive as those xG figures are, we need to account for the average/low standard of opposition: Arsenal have played Wolves, Brighton, Leicester, and Southampton at home, whilst Liverpool’s away trips have taken them to Ipswich, Manchester United, Wolves, and Crystal Palace. On the back of a European week, it would be no surprise to see defences come out on top in this one.

• Recommended Bet - Under 2.5 Goals @ 19/20 with BetGoodwin

A £10 four-fold on the above selections returns £105.79 with BetGoodwin

Football Guides and Strategies

• How to Identify a Successful Football Tipster
• 5 Football Betting Stats You Must Follow to be Successful
  
• Betting on Overs in the Total Goals Market