Championship Playoffs: What Does xG Say?

The Premier League may still be ticking along – albeit drawing ever closer to a conclusion, with most sides having only three games remaining. However, in the Championship, the regular season is now over, with all 24 sides having completed their 46 fixtures for the 2022/23 campaign.

We have known for some time that a rampant Burnley and resurgent Sheffield United will be playing Premier League football next season, whilst for Reading, Blackpool, and Wigan Athletic, League 1 beckons following a disappointing campaign. However, the quartet of Luton Town, Middlesbrough, Coventry City, and Sunderland do not yet know their fate. They are, of course, the four sides who make up these season’s championship playoffs – with Coventry City and Sunderland having squeaked into the top 6 on what was a thrilling, topsy turvy, and – in the case of Millwall fans – devastating final day of action.

Four sides with high hopes of tackling the likes of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool next term, as opposed to the Rotherhams, Huddersfields, and Plymouth Argyles of the world, but only one will make it. The question is, who will it be? Here we investigate who the xG stats suggest is the strongest of the four remaining contenders, using data presented by Newbettingsites.uk.

xG Season Performance

The above table compares the points tallies achieved by each of the sides, with the points totals predicted by the xG measure. The xG result would suggest that Middlesbrough are much the best of the remaining sides if judged by statistical performance – Michael Carrick's side coming out fully 20 xG points clear of next best Coventry City. Luton Town , meanwhile, outperformed their xG number to finish third, whilst Sunderland matched their predicted tally of 69 exactly.

Interestingly, if the league table was determined by xG points, Middlesbrough and Coventry City would still have made the playoffs, but both Luton Town and Sunderland would have missed out. The “unlucky” sides from an xG perspective are West Brom and Swansea City, who finished 4th and 6th in the xG table, but only 9th and 10th in reality.

Semi Finals

To assess how the semi-finals may play out, we need to dig a little deeper into the data. The above table displays the home and away performance of each of the remaining sides in terms of the average xG scored, and the average xG conceded. By matching up the respective home and away results, we can produce an xG prediction for the home and away legs of each game and the overall winner of the tie.

Semi-Final 1: Luton Town vs Sunderland

It would be some story were Sunderland to make it to the Premier League, having looked dead and buried with only 45 minutes of the season remaining. Millwall needed only a point to make the playoffs and appeared to be cruising home when 3-1 up at home to Blackburn Rovers at halftime. However, a second-half capitulation by the Lions saw Ben Brereton Diaz hit an 86th-minute winner to complete a remarkable 4-3 comeback from Blackburn, which - in combination with the Black Cats 3-0 win at Preston - was enough to move Sunderland up to 6th on goal difference.

Whether Tony Mowbray’s men can finish the job remains to be seen, but they do at least look to have a live chance of making the final, with their clash with Luton Town coming out almost dead even on the stats. Expect a tense, tight encounter in the first of the semis.

Semi-Final 2: Middlesbrough vs Coventry City

Middlesbrough and Coventry City will certainly be familiar with one another, having clashed at the Riverside Stadium on the final day. That game finished as a 1-1 draw, but may not be an accurate barometer to judge this game by. Whereas the point was enough to secure Coventry City’s place in the playoffs, Middlesbrough effectively had nothing to play for, having been booked four fourth spot regardless of the outcome.

The Teeside club certainly won’t be lacking in motivation here, and the stats would suggest that they hold the edge. The first leg in the Midlands looks almost dead even, but Boro are favoured on home soil and are predicted to have enough to get the job done in front of their own fans – possibly setting up a titanic North East Derby at Wembley.

Championship Playoffs Best Bets

The overall xG stats for the season, and the individual xG Semi-Final match-ups suggest that Middlesbrough are the strongest of the remaining sides, and the most likely to be playing Premier League football in 2023/24. They look worth supporting to win the playoffs at odds of 7/4 with LiveScoreBet.

Our second recommendation is to back Sunderland to qualify from the first semi-final. With their clash with Luton Town Town being so evenly poised on paper, the odds of 23/20 (LiveScoreBet), may represent a bit of value.

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